Google has acknowledged that its earthquake early warning system did not effectively alert the public during Turkey’s devastating 2023 earthquake.
Approximately ten million people within 98 miles of the epicenter could have received Google’s highest-level alert, providing up to 35 seconds to seek safety. Instead, only 469 “Take Action” warnings were issued for the initial 7.8 magnitude quake.
Google informed the BBC that half a million users received a lower-level warning intended for “light shaking,” which does not alert users as prominently.
Previously, Google claimed the system had “performed well.” This early warning system operates on Android devices, which constitute over 70% of phones in Turkey.
On February 6, 2023, two major earthquakes resulted in over 55,000 fatalities and more than 100,000 injuries, with many victims asleep in collapsing buildings when the tremors struck.
While the early warning system was active on the day of the earthquakes, it underestimated their strength. A Google spokesperson stated, “We continue to improve the system based on what we learn from each earthquake.”
How It Works
Google’s Android Earthquake Alerts (AEA) system detects shaking through a network of Android phones. Because earthquakes propagate relatively slowly, warnings can be sent out in time.
The “Take Action” alert triggers a loud alarm that overrides Do Not Disturb settings, covering the user’s screen. This alert is critical for warning about life-threatening shaking.
In contrast, the “Be Aware” warning informs users of lighter shaking but does not override device settings.
The “Take Action” alert was particularly vital in Turkey, as the first quake occurred at 4:17 AM, when many would have been asleep. Only this serious alert could have awakened users.
In the months following the earthquake, the BBC sought to speak with individuals who received the “Take Action” warning but found no one who had been alerted before the quake struck.
‘Limitations’
Google researchers published findings in the journal Science detailing the system’s shortcomings, citing “limitations to the detection algorithms.” For the first earthquake, the system estimated shaking at 4.5 to 4.9 on the moment magnitude scale (MMS), while it was actually 7.8.
A second strong earthquake later that day was also underestimated, with the system sending “Take Action” alerts to 8,158 phones and “Be Aware” alerts to nearly four million users.
After the earthquake, Google adjusted the algorithm and simulated the first quake again. This time, the system generated ten million “Take Action” alerts for those at highest risk and an additional 67 million “Be Aware” alerts for those farther from the epicenter.
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“Every earthquake early warning system grapples with the same challenge—tuning algorithms for large magnitude events,” Google stated.
However, Elizabeth Reddy, Assistant Professor at Colorado School of Mines, expressed frustration over the delay in this information, noting, “We’re not talking about a little event—people died.”
Google maintains that the system is meant to supplement, not replace, national warning systems. Some scientists have raised concerns that countries may rely too heavily on untested technology.
Harold Tobin, Director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, emphasized the need for transparency regarding system performance, stating, “Would some places make the calculation that Google’s doing it, so we don’t have to?”
Google reports that post-event analysis has significantly improved the system, which has issued alerts in 98 countries. The BBC has inquired about AEA’s performance during the 2025 earthquake in Myanmar but has yet to receive a response.
SOURCE: GBCGHANAONLINE
