Fitch Solutions has confidently predicted that the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) will win the upcoming December general elections in Ghana, as stated in their latest Country Report dated September 19, 2024.
This marks the third time Fitch has made such a bold prediction for the NDC, coinciding with other polls, including one by Global InfoAnalytics, which forecasts that Mr. Mahama will secure 51.1% of committed voters, while Dr. Bawumia trails at 37.3%.
In response to these findings, Dr. Kwame Asah-Asante, a Political Scientist at the University of Ghana has noted that this information could serve as a critical campaign message for political parties.
He stated, “While this data can influence voter decisions, it alone won’t win elections. Factors like inflation, infrastructure, corruption, and the current debate surrounding “galamsey” will significantly impact voter choices.”
He elaborated, “Surveys can guide campaigns, but voters often prioritize economic issues, infrastructure development, and pressing local concerns. For instance, the issue of Dumsor was pivotal in the last election, and similar themes related to galamsey may emerge this time. Each constituency has unique issues that will ultimately influence their electoral decisions.”
Dr. Asah-Asante also emphasized that political parties should consider the insights from such polls seriously. “Surveys cost money, so if you’re receiving free information, it’s important to analyze it, whether it’s in your favor or not, and strategize accordingly for the election.”
Fitch Solutions also noted that the government is likely to ramp up spending ahead of the elections in a bid to improve its chances, however, Dr. Asah-Asante believes that such monetary inducements will have limited impact on the election results.
“This practice is not new; it aligns with what economists call the political business cycle. During elections, spending increases often at the expense of the economy, leading to a cycle of economic rebuilding post-election,” he explained.
He added, “Both the ruling party and the opposition will likely resort to spending. In our region, where poverty and economic challenges prevail, some voters may be swayed by material inducements. However, it’s important to note that while financial incentives can play a role, they are not the sole determinants of voter behavior.”
In light of these predictions, John Dramani Mahama, the NDC’s flagbearer, has urged caution among his supporters, warning against complacency and highlighting the need for vigilance throughout the electoral process.
“All credible opinion polls indicate that the NDC is poised to win,” he stated. “However, the NPP is attempting to create a false narrative by publishing misleading polls lacking credible methodology.”
Mr. Mahama concluded, stating “We must not be complacent. Every vote matters, and this election requires all of us to act as polling agents to protect the integrity of our electoral process.”
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Source: Eric Sekyi/ATLFMNEWS
