Ghana is emerging as one of Sub-Saharan Africa’s early recovery stories in 2025, despite a downward revision of its economic growth outlook by the World Bank.
In its latest Africa’s Pulse report released this April, the World Bank adjusted Ghana’s 2025 GDP growth forecast to 3.9%, down from an earlier estimate of 4.3% and below the government’s 4.4% target.
The revision comes amid sustained inflationary pressures and persistent external vulnerabilities.
However, the multilateral lender noted encouraging signs of economic resilience and recovery, citing improved business activity, rising investor confidence, and easing supply constraints.
According to the report, Ghana’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 50.6 in March 2025—crossing the neutral 50-point threshold for the first time this year, signaling a rebound in private sector activity.
“Business activity in Mozambique and Ghana rebounded in February 2025,” the report stated.
“The modest uptick in Ghana was driven by increased demand and a resurgence in new business engagements.”
Looking ahead, the World Bank maintains a cautiously optimistic view of Ghana’s medium-term prospects, projecting GDP growth to rise to 4.6% in 2026 and 4.8% in 2027.
Nonetheless, the report underscores growing concerns over climate-related risks. Unpredictable weather patterns have disrupted cocoa production—Ghana’s key export—alongside Côte d’Ivoire.
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The Bank warned that floods and droughts across Africa are shrinking national budgets by as much as 9% and contributing to economic losses ranging from 2% to 5%.
Regionally, Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth is forecast to edge up from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.5% in 2025, with momentum expected to build toward 4.3% by 2027.
However, the report highlights underwhelming performance in Africa’s three largest economies—Nigeria, South Africa, and Angola—as a drag on the continent’s broader growth outlook.
Excluding these three, the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to grow at 4.6% in 2025, accelerating to 5.7% by 2027.
The World Bank concluded with a cautionary note, citing elevated downside risks—including global financial uncertainties, climate shocks, and fiscal constraints—that continue to pose serious threats to sustained and inclusive recovery across the continent.
