Fitch, a prominent UK-based credit rating agency, has expressed growing concerns over prolonged debt resolution periods in frontier markets such as Ghana.
The firm indicates that the process to resolve defaults is taking significantly longer now compared to the past two decades.
Several factors contribute to this delay, including the ineffectiveness of the Common Framework (CF) and the changing stance of Chinese stakeholders in debt restructuring negotiations.
According to Fitch’s recent findings, the median duration required to resolve sovereign defaults has escalated dramatically.
Since 2020, it has taken an average of 107 days to navigate the complexities of default, a sharp increase from the 35-day median recorded for all defaults since 2000.
Ineffective Common Framework (CF)
Designed to streamline creditor coordination, the Common Framework (CF) has not lived up to its promise.
Fitch attributes the lengthened resolution periods mainly to the CF’s inefficacy over the past two years.
This highlights an urgent need to revisit and potentially revise the guidelines and principles that underpin the framework.
Weaker Positions Despite Positive Ratings
Fitch notes that despite many frontier markets holding a Stable or Positive Outlook, these nations are generally in a weaker fiscal position compared to a few years ago.
Alarmingly, half of all Fitch-rated frontier markets have a credit rating of ‘B-‘ or less.
Five countries, Zambia, Ghana, Sri Lanka, Belarus, and Lebanon, are currently grappling with record-level defaults and are rated as ‘RD’ (Restricted Default).
China’s Role in Debt Resolution
In earlier debt negotiations, Chinese stakeholders have been less accommodating, demanding the inclusion of multilateral debt in any restructuring plans.
However, Fitch observes that China is now showing more flexibility, moving away from its earlier rigid approach.
The recent debt deal involving Zambia is cited as an example of a potentially improving landscape in the swift resolution of frontier markets’ sovereign restructurings.
Local Perspective: The Case of Ghana
Commenting on Fitch’s report, Prof. John Gartchie Gatsi, Dean of the School of Business at the University of Cape Coast, emphasized that Ghana’s financial productivity has room for improvement.
He noted that the country’s debt rating is influenced by factors like depreciation, thereby contributing to the nation’s debt issues.
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Source: Anthony Sasu Ayisadu/ATLFMNEWS
